However you want to look at it, 2012 was a year of recovery in San Ramon Valley Real Estate. Foreclosures slowed to a near standstill and bank owned homes for sale became fewer and fewer and while Short Sales were being agreed to by lenders more than in previous years, even there we saw fewer coming on to the market.
So what we had in 2012 were relocation sales, divorce sale, distress sales of one kind or another and sales because families just needed more space.
What we also experienced was rising prices, and while first-time buyers were coming back into the market for the first time in a few years, many had to accept defeat as homes moved out of their reach due to rising prices. This was due to a number of factors including a lot of investor activity, record low interest rates and a shortage of homes for sale.
Median Prices Danville San Ramon Home Sales
So let?s take a look at some real-life examples. The chart on the left depicts the change in home values from Quarter 4, 2011 to Quarter 4, 2012. This is for the typical 4 bedroom, 2+ bath detached home with between 1800 and 2500 square feet of living space.
I have taken Danville and San Ramon as examples because these are the fastest recovering communities in our area and the volume of sales is significant in all cases so that the figures are not skewed by too small a sample. I wanted to include Alamo as well but in 2012, Alamo had very low volume of sales in Quarter 4 so the results could be inaccurate. So we see a marginal increase in home values in Danville, whereas in San Ramon it is a different story.
San Ramon Home Values? Soared In 2012
In CA 94582, which includes Windemere and Gale Ranch, we can see an increase in median sale price of almost 8%, through 2012, which is quite considerable. Much more surprising though is the increase in median sale price in West side San Ramon (CA 94583) of a staggering 16%.
And who would have predicted that the median sale price in San Ramon CA 94582 would be higher than that in Danville in Quarter 4, 2012.
To say that the area shows signs of recovering is obviously something of an understatement. Still, there are other factors that have to be taken into consideration before necessarily assuming that this trend will continue.
Real estate can be considered a commodity in some ways and as such, it is subject to the law of supply and demand.? The big problem for the past few months in Danville and San Ramon has been a lack of inventory. Yes, low interest rates have had a bearing on increasing prices, but this is probably not the main driving force. A surprising number of homes sell to cash buyers these days, many of whom are investors who either buy to rent or to flip.
Current Inventory Levels Are At All Time Lows
Admittedly, the start of the year is likely to be less than representative and I am writing this column part way through January but the figures still give considerable pause for thought. Based on the Quarter 4 of 2012, the monthly absorption rate of homes for sale is 57 in Danville, 27 in San Ramon 94582 and 29 in San Ramon 94583. With only 31 homes currently for sale in Danville and 9 and 6 in San Ramon 94582 and 94583 respectively, this equates to around 2 weeks supply in Danville and less than one week in San Ramon. As we move in to the year, this will certainly improve but unless we see a real influx of homes for sale in all areas, it looks like prices may continue to increase at a considerable rate.
If you would like to have an assessment of the market value of your home or if you have any questions or comments, please do not hesitate to contact me on (925) 997-1585 or email bernard@bernardgibbons.com. There is never any obligation and I am always happy to hear from you.
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About Bernard Gibbons
Source: http://eastbayinformer.com/san-ramon-valley-real-estate-review-through-2012/
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